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Monsoon Prediction: How will the monsoon of 2024 be, know what has been predicted by the Meteorological Department

Monsoon Prediction: How will the monsoon of 2024 be, know what has been predicted by the Meteorological Department

Monsoon Prediction: Monsoon Prediction: The full summer season has started in India and the temperature has reached 40 degrees. Then, after this summer conditions, a forecast has been made recently by the Meteorological Department giving information about the upcoming monsoon season. Which is Monsoon Predication. Then the Indian Meteorological Department has predicted how the monsoon will be this year and how much rain will fall.

The Indian Meteorological Department has announced this year's monsoon forecast in the country. The Meteorological Department said that the monsoon rains this year may be more than average. The season's total rainfall is forecast to be 106 percent with an average of 87 cm. The Meteorological Department has also given the exact reasons for this.

Monsoon forecast

The IMD has said that La Nina conditions are likely to remain active from August to September this year. This process is considered responsible for good monsoons in India. The chief of IMD released a statement while forecasting the monsoon and said that if we look at the statistics from 1951 to 2023, India has received more than normal rainfall 9 times. When El Nino is followed by La Nina.

What the Meteorological Department said

2024 West – South Monsoon Seasonal (June – September) Above normal rainfall is likely across the country. Seasonal rainfall across the country can be 106% with a model error of -+5%. The long-term average of seasonal rainfall across the country for the period 1971 to 2020 is 87 cm.
A moderate El Niño condition currently prevails over the equatorial Pacific. Recently the MMCFS as well as other climate models show the fire. The Al Niña condition may weaken further in the early part of the monsoon season followed by the development of a La Nina condition in the second part of the monsoon season.

IMD predicts 2024 southwest monsoon season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole to be above normal (>104% of the Long Period Average (LPA)). Seasonal rainfall is likely to be 106% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%. LPA of monsoon rainfall (1971-2020) is 87 cm. pic.twitter.com/bgBhLX0M2W

— India Meteorological Department (@Indiametdept) April 15, 2024
At present, a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) condition prevails in the Indian Ocean. And recent climate model predictions indicate that a positive Indian Ocean dipole condition is likely to prevail during the south-west monsoon season.
Also Read: Ambalal Forecast: Ambalal Predicts Monsoon Seeing Holi Movement, Know How 2024 Monsoon Will Be

હવામાન વિભાગે શું કહ્યું

  • 2024 પશ્ચિમ – દક્ષિણ ચોમાસુ મોસમી (જૂન – સપ્ટેમ્બર) સમગ્ર દેશમાં સામાન્ય કરતાં વધુ વરસાદની શક્યતા છે. સમગ્ર દેશમાં મોસમી વરસાદ -+5% ની મોડલ ભૂલ સાથે 106% હોય શકે છે. 1971 થી 2020 ના સમયગાળા માટે સમગ્ર દેશમાં મોસમી વરસાદની લાંબાગાળાની સરેરાસ 87 સેમી છે.
  • હાલમાં વિષુવવૃતિય પેસેફિક પર મધ્યમ અલ નીનો સ્થિતિ પ્રવર્તે છે. તાજેતરમાં MMCFS તેમજ અન્ય આબોહવા મોડલની આઘી દર્શાવે છે. ચોમાસાની ઋતુ પ્રારંભિક ભાગમાં અલનીનો સ્થિતિ વધુ નબળી પડી શકે છે અને ત્યાર પછી ચોમાસાની ઋતુના બીજા ભાગમાં લા નીનાની સ્થિતિ વિકસિત થવાની સંભાવના છે.
  • હાલમાં હિન્દ મહાસાગરમાં તટસ્થ હિન્દ મહાસાગર દ્વિધ્રુવ (IOD) ની સ્થિતિ પ્રવર્તે છે. અને તાજેતરની આબોહવા મોડલની આગાહી સૂચવે છે કે દક્ષિણ – પશ્ચિમ ચોમાસાની મોસમ દરમિયાન હકારાત્મક હિન્દ મહાસાગર દ્વિધ્રુવ સ્થિતિ પ્રવર્તે તેવી શક્યતા છે.


  • છેલ્લા ત્રણ મહિના દરમિયાન ઉતરીય ગોળાર્ધમાં બરફનું આવરણ સામાન્ય કરતાં ઓછું હતું. ઉતરીય ગોળાર્ધમાં તેમજ યુરિશિયામાં શિયાળો અને વસંત હિમવર્ષા સામાન્ય રીતે અનુગામી ભારતીય ઉનાળાના ચોમાસાના વરસાદ સાથે વિપરીત રીતે સંબંધિત છે
Northern Hemisphere snow cover was below normal during the past three months. In the Northern Hemisphere as well as in Eurasia, winter and spring snowfalls are generally inversely related to the subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall.

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